Live Coronavirus COVID-19 - Confirmed Cases and Deaths by Country.(New updates every hour)



January Timeline:

How dangerous is the virus?

There are three parameters to understand in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:

How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear. For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus

See full details: Coronavirus Fatality Rate The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January 29, 2020  . However, it noted that, without knowing how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the mortality rate figure. A prior estimate had put that number at 3%. Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists. For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)

See full details: COVID-19 Coronavirus Incubation Period Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14 days), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).

Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases

 See latest findings: Age, Sex, Demographics of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths According to early estimates by China's National Health Commission (NHC), about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7 issued on Jan. 27: A study of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP found that the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. The WHO, in its Myth busters FAQs, addresses the question: "Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?" by answering that:

Patient who died in the Philippines was a 44-year old male

The patient who died in the Philippines on February 2, in what was the first death occurring outside of China, was a 44-year-old Chinese man from Wuhan who was admitted on Jan. 25 after experiencing fever, cough, and sore throat, before developing severe pneumonia. In the last few days, “the patient was stable and showed signs of improvement, however, the condition of the patient deteriorated within his last 24 hours resulting in his demise." according to the Philippine Department of Health.

Serious Cases of 30 year old patients in France

As of Jan. 29, according to French authorities, the conditions of the two earliest Paris cases had worsened and the patients were being treated in intensive care, according to French authorities. The patients have been described as a young couple aged 30 and 31 years old, both Chinese citizens from Wuhan who were asymptomatic when they arrived in Paris on January 18 .

Age and Sex of the first deaths as reported by the China National Health Commission (NHC)

The NHC reported the details of the first 17 deaths up to 24 pm on January 22, 2020. The deaths included 13 males and 4 females. The median age of the deaths was 75 (range 48-89) years.

WHO Risk Assessment: Global Emergency

See full details: WHO coronavirus updates On January 30, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency. For more information from the WHO regarding novel coronavirus: WHO page on Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Comparisons:

Coronavirus Worldometer Sections:

 

More info

Sources

  1. Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports - World Health Organization (WHO)
  2. 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the U.S. -. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
  3. Outbreak Notification - National Health Commission (NHC) of the People’s Republic of China
  4. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - Australian Government Department of Health
  5. Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic prediction - Jonathan M. Read et al, Jan. 23,2020.
  6. Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China - Maimuna Majumder and Kenneth D. Mandl, Harvard University - Computational Health Informatics Program - Posted: 24 Jan 2020 Last revised: 27 Jan 2020
  7. Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV - 25 January 2020 - Imperial College London‌
  8. Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review - Epidemiology. Nov. 24, 2013
  9. A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern - Chen Want et al. The Lancet. January 24, 2020
  10. Symptoms of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - CDC
  11. China's National Health Commission news conference on coronavirus - Al Jazeera. January 26, 2020
  12. Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China - Reuters. January 23, 2020
  13. Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - WHO, January 23, 2020
  14. International Health Regulations Emergency Committee on novel coronavirus in China - WHO, January 30, 2020
  15. Human-to-human transmission of Wuhan virus outside of China, confirmed in Germany, Japan and Vietnam - The Online Citizen, Jan. 29, 2020
  16. Who: "Live from Geneva on the new #coronavirus outbreak"
  17. CDC Confirms Person-to-Person Spread of New Coronavirus in the United States - CDC Press Release, Jan. 30, 2020
  18. CMO confirms cases of coronavirus in England - CMO, UK, Jan. 31, 2020
  19. Coronavirus in France: what you need to know - The Local France, Jan. 31, 2020
  20. First two persons infected with coronavirus identified in Russia - Tass, Jan. 31, 2020
  21. Updated understanding of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in Wuhan, China - Journal of Medical Virology, Jan. 29, 2020
  22. Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China - Zhidong Cao et al., Jan. 29, 2020
  23. Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak - Jan. 30, 2020
  24. Coronavirus: Window of opportunity to act, World Health Organization says - BBC, Feb,\. 4, 2020
  25. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China - Wang et. al, JAMA, Feb. 7, 2020